Romney leads 2012 GOP field in new Gallup Poll

UPDATE at 2:48pm: Allahpundit chimes in:

Question: If both Romney and Palin announce that they’re running, does Huck drop out and play kingmaker instead? He’d have an outside shot to win a head-to-head race with Romney on the strength of the “anyone but Mitt” vote from evangelicals and “true conservatives.”

Hey! I’m an Evangelical (well, a Christian who goes to a non-denominational church at least) and a “true Conservative,” and I’m for Romney! Many of my friends are as well, and none of them have ever said that they wouldn’t vote for Romney based off of his being a Mormon.

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Rasmussen also had Romney ahead in a poll they took on July 6th, which had him with 25% of the vote. Palin came in second with 24%, Huckabee had 22%, and Gingrich had 14%. Both Pawlenty and Barbour polled 1%.

Here are the results from the new Gallup poll, conducted from July 10-12:

1. Mitt Romney: 26%
2. Sarah Palin: 21%
3. Mike Huckabee: 19%
4. Newt Gingrich: 14%
5. Tim Pawlenty: 3%
6. Haley Barbour: 2%

Comparing it with the Rasmussen poll, Romney gains a point, Palin and Huckabee lose three, Gingrich stays the same, and Pawlenty and Barbour remain irrelevant.

But here’s where the data gets really important:

No real surprises here. Among Republicans, Sarah Palin remains the most popular and unpopular candidate. And as you can see, virtually everyone on the Right has an opinion about her.

That’s not the case for Romney and Huckabee, who are both liked and disliked about equally, with many on the Right not having an opinion either way. Whether that’s a positive or negative for them remains to be seen.

Moving on to what all Americans think about the leading three candidates:

Palin’s numbers are about what’d you expect, and while having 43% approval isn’t shabby, you don’t want that to be accompanied with 45% disapproval. That’s why Huckabee has to be feeling pretty good about these numbers. He rivals Palin in popularity among all voters, but his unfavorables are 22 points lower. Granted, there are many who have  “no opinion,” so it’s somewhat unfair to compare, but looking at the numbers we’re given, he polls well.

It’s hard to get a proper context on Romney’s numbers (which by themselves are pretty good) until you look at this next graphic:

In five months, Romney has improved his image dramatically. While his favorables are up just three points, his unfavorables have dropped 17 points. That’s HUGE. He still needs to get his favorables up, but as long as he keeps giving foreign policy speeches at the Heritage Foundation or appearing on Meet The Press to knock the Stimulus package, he will. Especially if the economy keeps dragging.

Recent polls show HUGE shift among those who think country is on the right/wrong track

Check these numbers out, via RealClearPolitics:

To recap, that’s a -26 point spread for Diageo/Hotline, -16 point spread for CBS, and a -7 point spread for Rasmussen, all within about a month’s time.

Stunning.

Dennis Prager on the potential ban on smoking in the military

Prager is dead-on here, and very funny to boot.

From his show on July 10th:

Story about the potential ban is here.

Marco Rubio tells it like it is, says not having support of GOP leadership “sucks”

How can you not root for this guy? I keep holding onto hope because of the fact that among those who have heard of both him and Crist, the race is a statistical dead heat.

From The Jacksonville Observer:

Crist outraised Rubio considerably during the quarter that ended June 30 – and has brought in more than $4 million to Rubio’s less than $400,000. Rubio said he’s not naïve and knows he needs to do better raising money to get his message heard, but said he hopes the primary will be about ideas, not just money.

Implicit in a message that he will be the candidate who has principles – many of which he outlined in some level of detail – was a hint that Crist doesn’t have strong stands on issues, though Rubio didn’t say that directly.

“If we live in a country where all you’ve got to do is raise a lot of money … we’ve got bigger problems than me not winning,” Rubio said. “I hope to live in a country where ideas still matter.”

In addition to having very low name recognition against Crist – who has wide recognition and is popular to boot – and the fundraising disadvantage, Rubio was reminded by a questioner at the forum that he also faces the opposition of his party leadership, which has backed Crist.

“Yeah. It sucks doesn’t it?” Rubio responded.

It does indeed, Marco.

Marco Rubio, rising star.

Jennifer Rubin’s Seven Rules for a GOP Victory in 2012

Rubin wrote the following today for Pajamas Media:

…We have learned something in the last six months from watching the president and his Republican critics. Based on what we have seen we would suggest that those seeking to lead the party back from the wilderness should abide by seven rules. Those who follow them are not guaranteed to grab the 2012 nomination, but if a contender can’t even manage these simple guidelines, he or she really needs to get off the stage.

1.) No drama.

2.) He or she need not know everything, or have expertise in every conceivable area of public policy. But having demonstrated competence on some topic could well come in handy.

3.) It helps to be not old, not a grouch, and not imprisoned by policy minutiae to the exclusion of broader themes and an aura of gravitas.

4.) Be able to run a full-throated attack on Obama and the Congress.

5.) A little boring is okay. Former Vice President [4] Dick Cheney showed us that you need not be more charismatic or “cooler” than Obama to win a policy debate, just better informed and more focused on a clear, fact-based message.

6.) Figure out the demography. The old, white, southern men don’t vote in great enough numbers to elect the next president.

7.) Don’t banish a single person from the party. Rush Limbaugh, Colin Powell, David Frum, and all the silly conservatives who backed Obama should be part of the campaign and part of the candidate’s outreach.

Palin is excluded by #1 and #6, and Huckabee’s excluded by just #6. The only person (who can actually win the nomination) who’s not excluded by any of the rules seems to be Mitt Romney.

Again, though, if the economy rebounds at some point in 2011 or 2012, Obama will be re-elected, and none of these rules will matter.

I’ve gotta say, it’s a little strange rooting for and against the economy at the same time…

Oh my: 37% now ’strongly disapprove’ of Obama, Presidential Approval Index now at -5

From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 32% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of –5.The number who strongly disapprove inched up another point to the highest level measured to date and the overall Approval Index is at the lowest level yet for Obama (see trends).

Rasmussen now puts Obama’s overall approval rating at 52% approve, 48% disapprove.

Good Polling News for Republicans

A new Rasmussen poll shows that Republicans continue to lead the Generic Congressional Ballot. They lead by two points last week, and now lead by three, 41%-38%.

Republican candidates lead Democrats for the second straight week in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 41% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 38% would choose the Democratic candidate.

Support for the GOP remains unchanged this week – at its highest level over the past year, but support for Democrats dropped one point to tie its lowest level in the same time period.

Obama’s approval ratings are dropping like a rock in Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac poll:

President Barack Obama gets a lackluster 49 – 44 percent approval rating in Ohio, considered by many to be the most important swing state in a presidential election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is President Obama’s lowest approval rating in any national or statewide Quinnipiac University poll since he was inaugurated and is down from 62 – 31 percent in a May 6 survey.

By a small 48 – 46 percent margin, voters disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. This is down from a 57 – 36 percent approval May 6. A total of 66 percent of Ohio voters are “somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the state, while 33 percent are “very satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied,” numbers that haven’t changed since Obama was elected.

Finally, also from Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 33% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-six percent (36%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of –3. Those figures reflect the highest level of strong disapproval measured to date and the lowest level recorded for the overall Approval Index (see trends).

Rasmussen also has Obama’s overall approval rating at 52%, its lowest figure to date.

Media fawns over Jackson, forgets our soldiers

UPDATE at 12:36pm: Here’s a video from Fox News earlier today, in which they share a letter that was penned by the aunt of 1st Lt. Brian N. Bradshaw (third soldier down), castigating the media for focusing so much on Michael Jackson, and so little on our fallen soldiers.

Btw, notice how long it takes Fox to get rid of the little “Michael Jackson Tribute” video box? How pathetic. This is DURING A STORY about how irresponsible the media has been, and they still choose to keep it up there for nearly a minute.

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While the media continues to fawn over Michael Jackson, these are the true heroes they should be devoting wall-to-wall coverage to:

Name: Pvt. Steven T. Drees

Hometown: Peshtigo, Wisconsin, U.S.

Age: 19 years old

Died: June 28, 2009 in Operation Enduring Freedom.

Unit: Army, 2nd Battalion, 12th Infantry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, Fort Carson, Colo.

Incident: Died at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, in Landstuhl, Germany, of injuries sustained in Konar Province, Afghanistan, when insurgents attacked his unit using small arms fire and a rocket-propelled-grenade launcher.

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Name: Pfc. Peter K. Cross

Hometown: Saginaw, Texas, U.S.

Age: 20 years old

Died: June 26, 2009 in Operation Enduring Freedom.

Unit: Army, 2nd Battalion, 87th Infantry Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, Fort Drum, N.Y.

Incident: Died of injuries sustained during a vehicle roll-over.

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Name: 1st Lt. Brian N. Bradshaw

Hometown: Steilacoom, Washington, U.S.

Age: 24 years old

Died: June 25, 2009 in Operation Enduring Freedom.

Unit: Army, 1st Battalion, 501st Parachute Infantry Regiment, 4th Airborne Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, Fort Richardson, Alaska.

Incident: Killed when a makeshift bomb detonated near his vehicle.

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Name: Spec. Joshua L. Hazlewood

Hometown: Manvel, Texas, U.S.

Age: 22 years old

Died: June 25, 2009 in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Unit: Army, 614th Automated Cargo Documentation Detachment

Incident: Died of injuries sustained from a non-combat related incident.

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Name: Spec. Casey L. Hills

Hometown: Salem, Illinois, U.S.

Age: 23 years old

Died: June 24, 2009 in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Unit: Army, 100th Battalion, 442nd Infantry Regiment, Pago Pago, American Samoa

Incident: Killed during a vehicle roll-over.

Romney/Thune 2012

My ticket for the GOP in 2012:

First, the positives:

1. Romney and Thune are incredibly eloquent and articulate speakers.
2. Romney has been getting favorable press coverage as fellow 2012 candidates have fallen by the wayside. Even if Sarah Palin announces that she’s running for president in 2012, Romney is now clearly seen as the frontrunner.
3. Romney’s knowledge, experience, and background on economic issues will offer a big boost to him if the economy doesn’t improve by 2011-2012.
4. Romney’s won three straight CPAC straw polls.
5. Romney’s national favorablity rating has risen 10 points since February 2008, according to a Pew Poll that was just released. In the same time frame, his unfavorable rating has fallen 16 points.
6. Thune is also popular, as he has a high favorability rating (57%-32%) in South Dakota, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted in April. In that poll, when matched up with Tom Daschle, whom he beat in 2004, Thune wins the hypothetical rematch 53%-40%. That’s a clear sign of Thune’s popularity, as he beat Daschle by just 2% back in 2004.
7. Thune was just elected chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee, making him the #4 GOP leader in the chamber. Before that, Thune had served as Republican Conference Vice Chairman and Chief Deputy Whip.
8. Thune is a staunch Conservative (more here), who received a score of “88.8% Conservative” by the National Journal on senate votes in 2008. He also receives high marks from the American Conservative Union. This would draw Conservatives who were wary about Romney to the ticket.
9. Thune and Romney are both married, (Romney for 40 years, Thune for 25) and have good kids who have stayed out of trouble.
10. Thune is a strong, committed Evangelical Christian who would draw hesitant Christians (“Oh no, Romney’s a Mormon!”) to the ticket.

Now, the negatives:

1. Romney and Thune are good-looking white men, which is HUGELY problematic for a variety of reasons. (“Too slick” factor (mostly with Romney), minority voters wouldn’t be drawn to the ticket, two white men against a black president, etc. etc.)
2. Thune’s name-recognition is quite low.
3. Many Conservatives see Romney as too moderate, and may stay home regardless of who he picks as VP.
4. Thune’s name-recognition is quite low. (So important, it has to be mentioned twice)
5. Romney needs to learn how to connect with “the common man.” Thune has a knack for that (how could you not in South Dakota?), but Romney doesn’t. Case in point, while speaking to a group of black kids on the campaign trail in ‘08, Romney thought it’d be hip to say, “Who let the dogs out?” Hey Mitt, that song is NINE YEARS OLD. That comment made it seem like you’d never talked to young, black kids in your life. You’re going to need to avoid awkward exchanges like that if you’re going to win in 2012.
6. Palin voters really don’t like Romney. If she doesn’t run, he’s going to have to convince them to vote for him. As I said above, Thune helps a little bit with that, but I don’t know how much.
7. The Mormon thing. Sad, but true.
8. Romney owns mutliple homes, a fact that Dems would exploit in a second. He recently sold two of them, but he still owns two more, worth several million dollars each.
9. Romney’s a flip-flopper. Yes, he’s come over to the right side (no pun intended) on many issues over the years, but voters don’t like flip-floppers. Especially Conservatives.
10. If the economy rebounds before 2011-2012, Romney doesn’t have a shot, regardless of what he says, does, or who he picks as VP. Right now, I’d say there’s a 50/50 chance of that happening, though I may be being optimistic. If it does rebound, however, Obama will win re-election. Simple as that.

So, what do you think? Are my positives and negatives accurate? Are there any major ones that I missed? Let me know.

A great story to wrap up our 233rd birthday party

Via Fox News:

Soldier Who Fought in Pink Boxers Home for 4th of July

FORT WORTH, Texas  — The soldier who was photographed fighting the Taliban in his pink boxer shorts said Saturday he was glad to be back home in Texas after his yearlong deployment to Afghanistan — especially for the Fourth of July.

Specialist Zachary Boyd said he initially thought he’d get in trouble after an Associated Press photo first transmitted in May showed him with other soldiers behind sandbags wearing his “I love NY” boxers — plus flip-flops, a helmet and a bulletproof vest.

The Fort Worth soldier jumped up from a nap when his unit came under fire and didn’t want to waste time putting on his uniform.

“Every second counts,” he said.

Boyd said he had bought the boxers during a New York layover before deploying and chose pink because he thought his friends would laugh. As for a bright red T-shirt he also was wearing, Boyd said he wasn’t overly worried about drawing fire that day.

“The enemy already knew where I was,” Boyd said. “If they want to shoot at me, then that’s less fire they put on the guys that are pinned down, so that’s fine with me.”

All members of his unit came out of the fight safely, he said.

Now that he’s home in Fort Worth he said his boxers will be displayed in the 1st Infantry Division museum at Fort Riley, Kansas.

Although Boyd has been praised for his courage, the 20-year-old specialist said he was just doing his job.

“I don’t want any extra attention than the guys I served with because we all experienced the same stuff together; so I don’t feel like I should get any extra recognition,” Boyd said.

Since the photo gained worldwide attention, Boyd has received messages on social networking sites from hundreds of people around the globe as far off as China.

After spending a few days at home with his family, Boyd must return to Fort Hood near Killeen, where he is on active duty until February 2011. Boyd said he plans to begin training to become a helicopter pilot.

God bless Specialist Boyd, and all of the men and women in uniform fighting to keep us safe. As the great Winston Churchill once wrote, “We sleep soundly in our beds at night because rough men stand ready to do violence on our behalf.“

Keep our brave soldiers in your prayers.

Happy 233rd Birthday, America.