Not only is Brad Ellsworth going to lose in November to one of the three GOPers listed below, but his now-open 8th Congressional district (Cook PVI: R+8) House seat is going to be picked up by us as well.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds former Congressman John Hostettler with a 50% to 32% lead over Ellsworth, a current House member who voted with most other Democrats on Sunday to pass the health care plan. The survey was taken last Wednesday and Thursday nights. Fifteen percent (15%) remain undecided in that match-up.
Ex-Senator Dan Coats now posts a 49% to 34% lead over Ellsworth, with 12% undecided.
Ellsworth runs best against the third GOP contender, freshman State Senator Marlin Stutzman. In that match-up, Stutzman leads by just seven points, 41% to 34%. Eighteen percent (18%) are undecided.
So Ellsworth is losing to all three candidates. That in itself isn’t enough to give me absolute confidence he’ll lose in November. Adding this into the mix sure does though:
Unless there is a major shift if perception of the health care plan, Ellsworth may face a big challenge convincing voters in the state why he voted for the President’s plan. Just 35% of Indiana voters favor the plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats, while 63% oppose it. This is well above the level of opposition found nationally. These findings include 21% who Strongly Favor the plan and 54% who Strongly Oppose it.
You’re cooked, Brad.