Some new updates from two of the most respected political analysts in the game. For the record, I think they’re being quite conservative with their estimates here.
First, Charlie Cook of The Cook Political Report:
Combining its own race-by-race calculations with the results of national polls, The Cook Political Report officially projects a Republican gain of 30 to 40 seats. I suspect that the GOP will do even better if the trend over the past seven months continues.
Next, Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report:
Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
We’ve moved 44 seats toward the Republicans and only 4 toward the Democrats.
There’s no doubt in my mind we’re going to take back the House this year. Republicans are going to turn out in droves (as Gallup shows) to send a message to the Democrats that enough is enough.
As far as the Senate goes, that’s a much tougher gambit for Republicans. RealClearPolitics is predicting a pick-up of eight seats (not a lock), which would still give the Dems a 51-49 advantage.
Pataki declining to run in NY and Thompson declining to run in WI certainly doesn’t help our prospects, and if Rossi doesn’t run in WA, all hopes of a takeover will be sunk.