Alternate headline: “New Pew poll has absolutely devastating news for Democrats.”
Check this out:
Perhaps more troubling for Democrats, the link between dissatisfaction with government and voting intentions is at least as strong among independent voters. Independents who are highly dissatisfied with government are far more committed to voting this year than are independents who are less frustrated (78% vs. 58%).
Overall, independents voters slightly favor the GOP candidate in their district by a 41%-to-34% margin, but those who are highly dissatisfied with government favor the Republican candidate by an overwhelming 66%-to-13% margin. Independents who are less dissatisfied with government favor the Democratic candidate in their district (by 49% to 24%), but are much less likely to say they are certain to vote.
Here’s the corresponding table:
Based on these numbers, it seems that Republicans will comfortably take back the House this year.
In every recent poll we’ve seen, voter enthusiasm among Republicans has been higher than it’s been among Democrats. When you add Independents (and their enthusiasm to vote the Dems out) into the mix, you have a perfect storm for a Republican takeover in November.