According to Public Policy Polling, Tim Burns has everything going for him in the race to fill John Murtha’s old House seat. The race is widely seen as a referendum on Obama and congressional Democrats, and will serve as a barometer for how things are likely to play out for Democrats this November.
Here’s the polling data:
Buoyed by an electorate that is exceptionally sour on national Democrats, Republican Tim Burns has a 44-41 lead over Democrat Mark Critz in the special election to replace John Murtha in the House.
45% of voters have a favorable opinion of Burns to 26% who view him unfavorably and Critz is in positive territory as well with 41% of voters saying they like him to 34% who do not.
You know how Nancy Pelosi is going to fly to PA-12 to campaign for Critz? Yeah, not a brilliant idea.
Tipping the balance in a race where each candidate is pretty well liked may be the way voters in the district feel about a number of key Democrats – Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Arlen Specter, and Ed Rendell are all exceptionally unpopular.
Obama’s approval rating is just 33% to 57% disapproving, only 24% have a favorable opinion of Pelosi to 64% with an unfavorable one, 28% of voters approve of Specter to 60% who don’t, and 24% give Rendell good marks to 63% unhappy with him. Those aren’t the sorts of reviews that bode well for the district electing another Democratic politician.
And how about the enthusiasm gap?
Republicans have the enthusiasm on their side in this race as well. 57% of GOP voters say that they are ‘very excited’ about voting in the special election while just 38% of Democrats express that sentiment.
I like our chances.