From The Atlantic:
It’s going to be tough for Democrats to retain control of Hawaii’s first congressional district, according to a new poll from The Honolulu Advertiser and Hawai’i News Now.
Republican Charles Djou leads with 36 percent, while former Democratic Rep. Ed Case trails with 28 percent and fellow Democrat Colleen Hanabusa ranks third at 22 percent. (The survey was conducted by Ward Research of Honolulu; a relatively small sample of 349 likely voters were polled, and the margin of error was +/5.2 percent.)
This is a three-way race featuring two Democrats, and it appears they could split the vote, opening the door to a GOP victory. This is the district, by the way, where President Obama grew up, and it’s solidly Democratic; if Republicans win, we’ll probably hear about the Obama-home-district symbolism.
It would be a nice trophy for the GOP (even if the two Democrats collect, say 58, percent of the vote in the three-way race).
The vote will be held May 22, so there’s time yet for momentum to shift, in any of the three directions.
More from the Hotline On Call:
Dems have long worried that Case and Hanabusa would divide the base vote, and allow Djou to take the winner-take-all special election. This survey confirms those fears, but also shows that voters are brushing aside a torrent of anti-Djou attack ads that have been airing across the CD since early Apr.
To date, the cmte has spent $250K on the race — all on ads against Djou.