It’s going to be a barnburner ladies and gentlemen.
From Public Policy Polling:
Raleigh, N.C. – The special election to replace John Murtha looks to be headed for a photo finish, with Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz 48-47 in PPP’s final poll of the race.
There’s been very little movement in the race since PPP polled it a month ago. The main difference is that negative campaigning has driven up both candidates’ negatives by 10-11 points. Where Burns’ favorability was a net +19 in April it’s now just +8. And where Critz was previously at a net +7 it’s now -6.
Critz is holding onto a 73-22 lead with Democrats which is not bad at all in a district where even voters within the party have a negative opinion of Pelosi. But Burns is up 87-10 with Republicans and has a 52-31 lead with independents.
Here’s some analysis from Jim Geraghty at NRO’s Campaign Spot:
Tim Burns has a real chance to win this, but he’s going to need every last vote he can get.
Having said that, I notice Burns is winning independents 52 percent to 31 percent in PPP’s poll, and right now the Republicans are most enthused (52 percent describing themselves as “very enthusiastic”), independents are next most enthused (40 percent), and Democrats are least enthused (35 percent) among the three groups. The election is in two days. The ingredients are there for a Burns win.