So far in 2010, an average of 23% of Americans have been satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. That is well below the 40% historical average Gallup has measured since 1979, when it began asking this question. The 2010 average is also the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.
Satisfaction with the way things are going is a key indicator to watch leading up to Election Day in November. Low satisfaction ratings have typically been associated with greater net seat change between parties in Congress in midterm election years, as was the case for the 1982, 1994, and 2006 elections.
In each of those years, the average satisfaction rating was no higher than 33%. In 1994 and 2006, as is the case this year, the same party controlled the presidency and Congress heading into the elections, and party control of Congress changed hands after Election Day.
In a separate poll, Gallup points out that it’s Conservatives, by a wide margin, that are most enthusiastic about voting in November. Liberals lag far behind.
It’s easy to express excitement to a pollster, however. If we’re going to take back the House, we’re going to need everyone on the Right to show up to the polls when it counts. And by the way, our goal should not be 40 seats. Our goal should be 100 seats. We should aim to take back the House with a vengeance, not with a measly one or two seat advantage.