Gallup Has Very, Very Bad News For Democrats

From Gallup:

So far in 2010, an average of 23% of Americans have been satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. That is well below the 40% historical average Gallup has measured since 1979, when it began asking this question. The 2010 average is also the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.

Satisfaction with the way things are going is a key indicator to watch leading up to Election Day in November. Low satisfaction ratings have typically been associated with greater net seat change between parties in Congress in midterm election years, as was the case for the 1982, 1994, and 2006 elections.

In each of those years, the average satisfaction rating was no higher than 33%. In 1994 and 2006, as is the case this year, the same party controlled the presidency and Congress heading into the elections, and party control of Congress changed hands after Election Day.

In a separate poll, Gallup points out that it’s Conservatives, by a wide margin, that are most enthusiastic about voting in November. Liberals lag far behind.

It’s easy to express excitement to a pollster, however. If we’re going to take back the House, we’re going to need everyone on the Right to show up to the polls when it counts. And by the way, our goal should not be 40 seats. Our goal should be 100 seats. We should aim to take back the House with a vengeance, not with a measly one or two seat advantage.

Advertisements

19 Responses to Gallup Has Very, Very Bad News For Democrats

  1. hippieprof says:

    You guys have it in the bag. Relax. Have a beer. Chill.

    My prediction? You will pick up about 6 seats in the senate and about 30 in the house.

    It is interesting that the one competitive race last night between and Republican and a Democrat (PA 12) was won by a Dem….

    See – with health care reform passed and the economy finally creating jobs there isn’t much for you guys to be mad about anymore. By the time November rolls around the majority of Americans will have moved on from their anger. Limbaugh and Beck won’t be able to keep em’ riled up for another 5 months.

    — hippieprof

    • Nick says:

      Hi Jim, thanks for the comment.

      I don’t know why you find Mark Critz’s win so “interesting.” He was the favorite. It would have been an upset for Tim Burns to win in such a heavily Democratic district.

      And I hope you’re being sarcastic when you say there “isn’t much” for us to be mad about anymore. There’s a reason why Conservatives are so excited to vote this November. And btw, it’s not Limbaugh and Beck who rile us up. It’s the actions of President Obama and the Democrats in Congress that do that.

      – Nick

      • hippieprof says:

        Nick,

        I don’t think PA-12 is quite the dem stronghold you think it is. Murtha indeed held the seat for many years, but it has been trending conservative and actually voted for McCain in 2008. It is the type of race the GOP needs to win if you are really looking for a dramatic realignment in November.

        Here is some decent analysis:

        http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/does-critz-victory-mean-that-much.html

        I think Limbaugh and Beck influence you guys more that you think. Maybe not you in particular – but certainly the right wing. Polls show that the right wing gets their “news” almost exclusively from FOX. FOX is a propaganda organ for the GOP, so it is no surprise that you don’t like what Obama is doing.

        But – hey – why am I telling you this? Celebrate early, I say – have that beer ahead of time. You have it in the bag….

        😉

        — hp

      • Nick says:

        PA-12 voters sent Murtha to congress for decades. The Democratic voters in the district weren’t yet willing to see his legacy flame out in a special election. And btw, Critz ran on a pro-life, pro-gun, anti-HC platform. He gave Conservative Democrats no compelling reason to overwhelmingly shift to Burns, although:

        45,777 people voted in the Republican primary in PA-12, choosing Burns to run again in November. And 82,695 people voted in the Democratic primary, choosing Mark Critz. But in the special, Critz won 71,684 votes and Burns won 59,476 votes. Burns won, and Critz lost, around 17 percent of Democratic votes.

        That’s from Dave Weigel at the Washington Post. Burns did fine, but as I said, the Dems weren’t willing to see Murtha’s legacy flame out yet.

        And as far as the right wing getting our news “almost exclusively” from Fox, A) I want to see what poll you’re referring to, and B) Liberals hate Fox because it has unbelievable ratings. They have no legitimate beef about the coverage. In fact, Pew Research rated Fox’s 2008 presidential election coverage the “most fair.”

      • hippieprof says:

        Oh, no doubt there is heavy spin on both sides. For every article you post saying PA-12 doesn’t matter I can post one saying it does.

        I suspect we can agree on the following:

        I would be a bit more worried if we dems had lost PA-12. You would bit more confident had you won it.

        I still stand by my earlier assertion: right-wing anger is diminishing and it will be a different environment come November. Dems will lose seats as the in-power party always does at midterms – but it won’t be a massive realignment.

        — hp

      • Nick says:

        I’ll agree with you on your first point about our reactions and PA-12.

        However, your second point is just factually incorrect. Do a search on my blog of the word “enthusiasm,” and you’ll see all the recent polls lately that show how excited those of us on the Right are to vote this November. Enthusiasm = anger about what’s going on in D.C.

        Our enthusiasm/anger is not diminishing. It’s getting stronger by the day.

      • hippieprof says:

        Nick says:

        Enthusiasm = anger about what’s going on in D.C. Our enthusiasm/anger is not diminishing. It’s getting stronger by the day.

        I understand your point – and indeed there is an enthusiasm gap at the moment. It isn’t necessarily anger, though – Dems had a wide lead in enthusiasm going into the 2008 election, but it wasn’t fueled by anger.

        I do know that the far right is indeed angry. I don’t think the soft middle is very angry right now. As for the left, a lot of us lack enthusiasm because Obama was unable to use his congressional majorities to enact progressive reforms. The health care bill we got – though better than nothing – falls far short of what we wanted.

        Now that Obama is actually doing something and getting things done, enthusiasm on the left will grow (and already is).

        The middle will not remain angry – if indeed they are angry now. It helps when Rand Paul uses his newfound national attention to say crazy stuff – which reminds the “soft middle” just what the tea party is all about.

        In the absence of some major controversy, I do not think the right will be able to maintain this level of anger until November.

        I may be wrong, but that is my prediction.

        As I said, you will gain seats – but I don’t think you will take control of either house of congress.

        — hp

  2. DCG says:

    Health care “reform” passed yet 56% still want to repeal it and 63% expect it will increase deficit (Rasmussen). Economy “finally” creating jobs – WA added just 5,800 jobs in April of which 1,600 of those were temporary workers (US Census).

    I’ll be chilling and celebrating with a beer come November for sure…

    • hippieprof says:

      DCG….

      Remember that Rasmussen has been shown about a 10 point GOP “house effect” for the last couple of years – they are way out of line with other polls these days. Remember also that a substantial proportion of dissatisfaction with HCR comes from people like me who think it didn’t go far enough – for example by including a public option.

      As I said above, PA-12 should give you a scare. It is exactly the tyoe pf race you need to with if you want a realignment.

      — hp

  3. hippieprof says:

    BTW – just noticed you guys are in Seattle. I grew up there – Seattle Prep class of 76.

    Now I am stuck in the Midwest for reasons of employment.

    I may disagree with your politics – but I envy your geographical location…..

    — hp

    • Nick says:

      Yeah, I love WA. It’s gorgeous. How often do you get back here?

      • hippieprof says:

        Unfortunately, I only get back these days when a relative dies….. but, my daughter is starting college at Willamette in the fall, so I will at least get to the region more often.

        — hp

  4. DCG says:

    PA-12 results don’t scare me…what happened in Congress today scares the CRAP out of me as it should every other American.

    Forget the Rasmussen poll then…the numbers on the economy speak for themselves. November can’t come soon enough!

    • hippieprof says:

      So – you are actually scared of Wall Street reform? Failure to achieve reform would have been a far more frightening scenario. Attempting to block reform was a bad move for the GOP – reform is popular with the public.

      • DCG says:

        Wall Street reform? Creating a new bureacracy and not reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act? Brlliant!

        My comment referred to the Dems in Congress applauding a foreign leader bashing the right of AZ to control their border. Straight up disrespect for the Constitution and the laws of our land.

  5. […] Meanwhile, in a poll released last week, Quinnipiac had Democrats up six points in their GCB poll of registered voters. Fully acknowledging my bias, I highly doubt the accuracy of that poll. The momentum heading into November is clearly in favor of Republicans, and all you have to do to see that is to look at Gallup’s poll on voter enthusiasm. […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: