Some on the Right say he can, while others say he’s doomed. Everyone on the Left agrees with the latter group.
Here’s an interesting note on the preliminary numbers from one of Jim Geraghty’s contacts on the ground in HI-01:
Likely rematch in Nov between Djou and Hanabusa. I don’t think Case can beat her one-on-one, and the fact that she rallied to beat him in the late balloting when the early polls had him up over her, shows he won’t be able to beat her in August. But, between the two, I think Djou would like to have Hanabusa as his opponent rather than Case. She’s got baggage, and she’s completely tied to the Dem machine.
Independents are more likely to go for Djou with her as his opponent, than they would be if Case was an option. I think among Case’s 27.6% are a ton of independents. The minor candidates got less than 3% total — good news for Hanabusa since it shows that Djou is going to have to mine Case’s voters for most of the 11% more he’ll need in Nov., and the biggest portion of those voters are Democrats.
While it’s going to be an uphill battle, I certainly think Djou can win in November. He’s a great guy with a positive attitude, and people genuinely like him. He’s going to have a tough time convincing enough Democrats to cross the aisle and vote for him when he’s in a one-on-one matchup, but I’m convinced he can do it.
As a side note, don’t downplay the fact that he’s the only candidate who can vote in HI-01, because he actually lives in the district. I’d expect for him to keep hammering that message home as he faces off against either Hanabusa or Case in November.