Seriously, I have no idea who’s really ahead in the CA-Sen GOP primary. I do know, however, that Chuck DeVore’s solidly in third place.
In the Republican primary for US Senator, support for former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is up sharply in the past 2 weeks, from 24% on 05/10/10 to 46% today 05/24/10. Fiorina’s support has more than doubled among women, seniors, Hispanics, the less educated, and in the Inland Empire. During these 2 weeks, Former Congressman Tom Campbell’s support dropped 12 points, from 35% on 05/10/10 to 23% today 05/24/10.
So wait, Carly Fiorina gained 22 points in 14 days, while Tom Campbell dropped 12 points in the same time frame?? That strikes me as…unlikely.
What that would mean is that every undecided voter (undecideds were down from 23% to 11% in this new poll) went towards Fiorina, while Fiorina was also able to scalp a significant amount of Campbell voters away from him. Again, unlikely.
Chuck DeVore was at 14% in the poll, by the way.
The other poll released today was conducted by Adam Geller, a Republican pollster for National Research, Inc. It showed Fiorina with 28%, Campbell with 26%, and DeVore with 19%. The margin of error was +/-5%.
I personally have never heard of National Research, Inc., so I have no idea how reliable they are.
The other most recent poll released was conducted from May 17-19 by Research2000 and Daily Kos. It had Tom Campbell leading with 37% of the vote, followed by Fiorina at 22% and DeVore at 14%.
Conclusion: Looking at polls to figure out which way momentum is going in the CA-Sen GOP primary right now is a huge waste of time.